Monday, 15 February 2010

Ministerial Statement on Burma

MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS
STEPHEN SMITH
8 February 2010
Ministerial Statement on Burma

Mr Deputy Speaker.

I wish to update the House on developments in Burma.

On 4 January, Burma’s Independence Day, Burmese Senior General Than Shwe announced that plans were under way to conduct elections in Burma this year.

Elections have long been foreshadowed under the Burmese military’s so-called ‘Roadmap to Democracy’.

If elections do take place, they will be the first in Burma in 20 years.

This year will, therefore, be an important one for Burma, and an important one for the international community’s engagement with Burma.

Australia has long been appalled both by the Burmese military’s suppression of the democratic aspirations of the Burmese people and by its disrespect for their human rights.

It is worthwhile recalling some important events in this longstanding suppression.

A military regime, in some form, has ruled Burma since 1962, nearly 50 years.

We recall the bloody put down of pro-democracy protests in 1988, just over 20 years ago.

Since 1988 Australia has had in place visa restrictions against senior members of the Burmese regime and their associates and supporters.

Following the failure to implement the outcome of the 1990 elections, in 1991 Australia introduced a ban on defence exports to Burma.

This is a ban on the export to Burma of controlled goods as listed on the Defence and Strategic Goods List.

In October 2007, financial sanctions were introduced in response to the violent crackdown on democracy protesters.

These various sanctions – travel sanctions, defence sanctions and financial sanctions – have the common purpose of exerting pressure on Burma’s military regime.

At the same time, Australia has recognised that engaging the Burmese authorities serves important national, regional and international interests.

We live in the same region. Through regional forums like the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference, the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Bali Process on People Smuggling, Human Trafficking and Transnational Crime, Australia has had the opportunity to engage Burma on challenges like counter-narcotics, trafficking in people, disaster relief and pandemic disease.

As well, Australia has for many years sought to help the Burmese people through a program of humanitarian assistance targeting the most vulnerable.

This program, now worth nearly $30 million in 2009-10, assists with fighting infectious diseases such as avian influenza, HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis; provides food aid and agricultural expertise to alleviate rural poverty; protects displaced people; and supports children to attend and remain in primary school.

ASEAN, through its humanitarian work in Burma after Cyclone Nargis, has been vital in facilitating assistance from Australia and members of the international community to the Burmese people.

Common membership of regional organisations also allows us at Ministerial level to directly advocate democratic reform and national reconciliation – as I did when I met my counterpart Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win during the ASEAN-related meetings in Thailand in July 2009.

Mr Deputy Speaker.

On 12 August 2009 I addressed the House on Burma after Aung San Suu Kyi’s conviction on spurious charges, leading to her ongoing house arrest.

I set out then that Aung San Suu Kyi’s sentence effectively removed the prospect of her participation in any proposed 2010 elections and would detract from the credibility of those elections.

Since that time, there have been a number of important developments both within Burma and in the international community’s approach to Burma.

On 17 September 2009 the Burmese authorities released 128 political prisoners in an amnesty. This was a welcome, tentative step in the right direction.

Repression however continues.

On 31 December, 15 activists were sentenced to up to 71 years imprisonment each. There regrettably remain close to 2000 political prisoners in Burma, including Aung San Suu Kyi.

Australia again calls on Burma’s authorities to release them and allow them to participate fully and freely in the upcoming elections.

In September 2009, in the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, I joined ten other Foreign Ministers and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in a Ministerial-level meeting of the Secretary-General’s Group of Friends of Myanmar.

The participation in this meeting was evidence both of the international community’s desire to see progress in Burma and of its willingness to both work together and with the Secretary General towards this end.

At the meeting, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon identified three areas for future unity of purpose and action:

First, to urge Burma to work with the United Nations to ensure an inclusive process of dialogue and create the conditions for credible elections.

Second, to uphold the role of the United Nations in Burma.

And third, to signal the international community’s willingness to help the people of Burma, but noting that Burma’s military regime needed to respond to international concerns in order for this to occur.

My visit to New York for the General Assembly coincided with the announcement of the United States policy review on Burma.

The United States Administration concluded that a sanctions-only policy to isolate Burma’s military has not worked and that future US policy would combine engagement, appropriate sanctions and humanitarian assistance.

US Secretary of State Clinton said that any debate that pits sanctions against engagement created a false choice, and that the international community would need to employ both of these tools.

Australia has welcomed this approach, as has the international community generally.

As to developments within Burma, on 25 September 2009 Aung San Suu Kyi wrote to Senior General Than Shwe offering to work with the Burmese authorities on the withdrawal of international sanctions, and asking to meet representatives of the European Union, the United States and Australia.

The fact that Australia was one of these three was significant and reflects the longstanding interest Australians have in Burma.

The authorities agreed to this request.

On 9 October 2009 Australia’s Chargé d’Affaires, together with the UK Ambassador and the US Chargé d’Affaires, met Aung San Suu Kyi in Rangoon.

The meeting was the first opportunity for a substantive discussion between an Australian representative and Aung San Suu Kyi since February 2003.

Australia’s Chargé conveyed a message from the Prime Minister which expressed the support of the Australian Government and the people of Australia for Aung San Suu Kyi and her struggle for democracy in Burma.

This was warmly welcomed by Aung San Suu Kyi.

Australia welcomed the subsequent visit to Burma in early November by United States Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and the meetings he held with the Burmese authorities, with Aung San Suu Kyi and with representatives of a number of ethnic minorities.

Aung San Suu Kyi wrote further to Senior General Than Shwe on 11 November 2009 requesting contact with her party’s Central Executive Committee.

In response to her request, she was permitted to meet three of the Central Executive Committee’s elders, including Chairman U Aung Shwe, on 16 December 2009.

Australia hopes that a meeting with the full Executive will take place soon.

This is the first substantial contact which Aung San Suu Kyi has had with the leadership of the National League for Democracy since 2007, and is warmly welcomed by the Australian Government as essential to democratic and political progress in Burma.

Australia hopes these initial engagements between Aung San Suu Kyi, the Burmese authorities and the international community are the beginning of a process of genuine dialogue.

Elections

Mr Deputy Speaker.

The Burmese authorities have embarked on the so-called “Roadmap to Democracy”, a strictly controlled process of potential political change.

It was a matter of great regret that they pushed ahead with a constitutional referendum, the fourth step in their Roadmap, in the midst of the disaster of Cyclone Nargis in May 2008.

That referendum was a regrettable sham.

Not surprisingly, political parties in Burma, including the National League for Democracy, and parties representing ethnic groups, are carefully considering whether to participate in the 2010 elections.

Burma’s authorities have an opportunity to engage the people, to ensure the full and free participation in the elections of the Burmese opposition, nascent political parties, and ethnic groups.

For Burma’s longer-term stability and security, the coming political process needs to address the concerns of the country’s diverse ethnic minority groups.

While, of course, given the history of these matters, there are long standing reservations, Australia will not pre-judge the process and the outcome of these elections.

Australia urges Burma’s authorities to seize this opportunity to genuinely move their country forward.

Development Assistance

Mr Deputy Speaker.

Australia has long provided humanitarian assistance to Burma.

In the 2009-10 Budget, the Government allocated nearly $30 million in humanitarian assistance, a significant increase in base funding over the previous year.

This will help address the pressing needs of the Burmese people.

Half of Burma’s almost 50 million people live in extreme poverty.

Child mortality rates are among the highest in the world.

Decades of military rule have eroded civil society and civilian institutions.

Skills have been lost and infrastructure has deteriorated.

At some stage into the future, Burma will have a civilian Government, which will face great challenges.

At some stage into the future, the regional and international community will be asked to help in the rebuilding of Burma’s economic and social structures.

Australia’s view therefore is that the international community help prepare Burma for the future.

Burma’s capacity cannot be allowed to completely atrophy to the ultimate disadvantage and cost of its people.

The international community needs to start the rebuilding now.

This is not a reward for Burma’s military, but a recognition of the immense task faced by current and future generations of Burmese.

At around $4 per head per annum, international aid to Burma is less than a tenth of that received by Cambodia and a sixteenth of that received by Laos.

Australia will accordingly increase its assistance to Burma over the next three years to around $50 million annually, a 67 per cent increase.

Alleviating humanitarian needs will remain an important goal and focus of this expenditure.

But the Government has decided that Australia’s program will also include capacity building elements, addressing the long-term challenges facing the Burmese people.

This will involve carefully targeted interaction in areas of great need like health, education and agriculture.

Our assistance will continue to be delivered in partnership with international organisations, such as UN agencies, ASEAN, other donor nations and non-government organisations.

We will expand existing initiatives in basic health care, including child and maternal health. We will work to improve the delivery of basic health services by equipping health clinics, training nurses, health care staff and administrators and providing better community health education and information.

At the village level, we will assist primary health care workers, including midwives, with critical training and medical supplies to help arrest the decline in health outcomes for vulnerable and isolated people.

We will continue to support the delivery of vital treatment, prevention and screening services for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, including through the Three Diseases Fund supported by Australia, the European Commission, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The Fund aims to reduce these three diseases in Burma.

We will also address critical water, sanitation and hygiene needs through:

1. the construction and rehabilitation of ponds and wells;
2. building latrines for community schools and rural health centres; and
3. working to provide equitable access to clean water.

In 2008-09 Australia’s assistance contributed to the basic education of over 400,000 children in Burma. We will increase our support to enable more poor and disadvantaged children to go to primary school.

Australian assistance will improve teaching and mentoring skills, both in the classroom and at home. Working closely with United Nations agencies, Non Government Organisations (NGOs) and other donors, we will support training programs for early childhood development workers, primary teachers and township education officials.

We will also continue to support vulnerable communities in the Irrawaddy Delta to restore their crop and fishing businesses, and in other areas of protracted need such as northern Rakhine State where the situation of the Rohingyas is very dire.

Australia will provide $20 million over the next four years to assist poor communities in Burma to:

1. improve access to credit, seeds, and tools;
2. provide training in small enterprise;
3. help farmers diversify their production and gain access to markets.

I have also asked the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and AusAID to explore a scholarship scheme for Burma.

Australia will liaise with partners such as the European Union, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States, all of whom have scholarship schemes for Burma, to learn from their experience.

It is proposed that a new scholarship scheme will target Burmese with the potential to build civil society and improve service delivery, including in health, education and agriculture.

As a start, 10 postgraduate scholarships and short term professional development placements will be made available, beginning in 2010-11.

We will work with the UN to carefully identify suitable candidates.

This assistance will be in addition to Australia’s significant contribution for relief and recovery efforts following Cyclone Nargis in May 2008.

Australia’s post-Nargis assistance continues to be delivered through effective and trusted aid partners such as the United Nations and Australian NGOs and includes:

1. agricultural inputs to help farmers restore their crops and livestock;
2. helping fishermen by providing nets and repairing boats;
3. repairing over 1,200 damaged schools and providing books and materials for over 360,000 children;
4. reducing disease risk by constructing 50,000 latrines and providing one million mosquito nets; and
5. supplies and shelter for vulnerable communities.

Burma is a difficult operating environment, but the collective experience in Burma over many years shows we can deliver assistance effectively to improve the lives of ordinary Burmese without benefiting the military authorities.

Sanctions

Mr Deputy Speaker.

Australia urges Burma’s military to respond positively to Aung San Suu Kyi’s recent offer to work towards the lifting of international sanctions.

Such a positive response would help make meaningful progress towards democratic reform, respect for human rights, and national dialogue and reconciliation.

Until we see significant change from Burma’s authorities, the Australian Government will maintain a policy of targeted financial sanctions.

We agree with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s observation that to lift sanctions now would send the wrong signal.

However, an expansion of sanctions at this time would send a confusing signal.

In view of the nascent discussions between the authorities and Aung San Suu Kyi, I have decided that sanctions should not be expanded at this time.

As a result, the sanctions list I announced in October 2008 will remain in operation for the present.

Diplomacy

Mr Speaker.

I earlier referred to my discussions on Burma in New York in September 2009.

These discussions again revealed the region’s and the international community’s great frustration with the Burmese authorities’ treatment of the political opposition, their self-imposed isolation, and the circumstances of the Burmese people.

My discussions also revealed that the international community is increasingly prepared to draw on a wide range of diplomatic tools, including both sanctions and engagement, to press for change in Burma.

Neither Australia nor the international community should however have any illusions that progress in Burma will be quick or easy.

Australia will continue to work closely with ASEAN and its member countries, including by continuing to support ASEAN’s much-needed humanitarian efforts in Burma.

We will cooperate closely with the United States as it pursues greater engagement with Burma, and with other major donors like the United Kingdom, to ensure our combined assistance does the greatest amount of good for the Burmese people.

We will also continue to support the work of the United Nations and the Secretary General.

We endorse UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s call for the international community to support UN efforts to promote respect for human rights, inclusive political dialogue and development in Burma.

Australia strongly supported the role of Ibrahim Gambari as the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative on Burma. His term concluded at the beginning of this year, and we look forward to working closely with his successor.

Conclusion

Mr Deputy Speaker.

Australia and the international community stand ready to assist Burma.

But it is not a one way street.

Australia urges the Burmese authorities to respond in good faith both to international engagement and to Aung San Suu Kyi’s recent approach to it on sanctions and on dialogue.

In moving towards dialogue and genuine national reconciliation, Burma’s authorities can end their isolation.

Australia has always considered the Burmese people our friends.

When Cyclone Nargis struck, Australia responded generously, despite our political differences with the Burmese authorities.

That was the right decision then, and it is the right decision now, together with the international community, to do more for the long-term future of Burma’s people.
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Asean MPs requests Thailand to halt plans to return Burma asylum seekers

February 11 2010

The ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus (AIPMC) is gravely concerned for the well being of unregistered Karen refugees currently residing in displacement sites in Tha Song Yang District, Tak. Announcements last month from the Thai government relating to the planned forced repatriation of the refugees beginning in February 2010 have caused renewed concern for their safety. AIPMC welcomes the Thai government’s decision to halt the repatriation of the estimated 3,000 refugees until their safety can be assured. AIPMC furthermore calls on the Thai government to make public and implement a clear policy regarding refugees fleeing from conflict zones across the border in Myanmar. Province

The flow of refugees from Myanmar’s Karen has been increasing since June 2009 when renewed fighting between the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), supported by the SPDC, put villagers in danger, causing them to flee across the border. These refugees have temporarily been permitted to reside in Thailand under the care of the Thai Military. State

Despite the victory of the DKBA, the situation in Karen remains unstable and unsafe for villagers. The area from which the refugees fled is heavily landmined and numerous injuries and deaths among people returning to their villages have been reported by organizations working in the areas concerned and with the refugees. State

Though the precariousness of the situation in Karen State is well known, a group of 13 refugees from Nong Bua, mostly women and children, and a group of 26 families from Usu Tha were recently repatriated to Myanmar. These refugees were sent back without witnesses or evidence to certify that their return was voluntary. Additionally, reports have surfaced of the Thai military using threats and coercion to force refugees’ return to Myanmar.

This use of threats and coercion to pressure refugees into returning to an area that is clearly not safe is unacceptable. AIPMC urges the Thai government to fully investigate these charges and to closely monitor the situation of the refugees currently under the care of the Thai Military. Furthermore, AIPMC calls on the Thai government to cooperate with UNHCR and other appropriate agencies to allow for the registration and proper care of the refugees until it is safe for them to return home.

The flow of refugees fleeing the dangerous and repressive situation in Myanmar is not a new problem. Widespread human rights violations and armed offensives by Myanmar’s military government against its own citizens have caused massive refugees flows in the region for many years. The underlying source of the refugee problem is the continued violence and oppression perpetrated by Myanmar’s government. To permanently end the flow of refugees from Myanmar a concerted effort to end human rights abuses and begin a dialogue of national reconciliation is necessary.

AIPMC requests ASEAN to use its Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights to investigate all claims of human rights abuses in Myanmar. Furthermore, the Commission should seek to ensure that Myanmar is held accountable for its past abuses and prevented from committing further violence against its citizens. Additionally, AIPMC urges ASEAN to develop and implement a regional policy concerning the member states’ responsibilities regarding refugees.

Finally, AIPMC calls on the government of Myanmar to begin the process of national reconciliation through genuine dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, the National League for Democracy and ethnic nationalities. As a first step in this process AIPMC urges the government of Myanmar to release Aung San Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners currently in detention.

Sunday, 14 February 2010

Burma Democratic Concern (BDC)

Burma Democratic Concern (BDC)


Burma Democratic Concern (BDC) is the global campaigning and lobbying organisation to restore democracy, human rights and rule of law in Burma where everyone can enjoy the freedom of speech, press, beliefs, assembly and rule of law that emphasizes the protection of individual rights. Burma Democratic Concern (BDC) has the firm determination, dedication and devotion to keep on working until the democracy restore in Burma.

Learning from the 1988 popular uprising, 1996 student demonstrations, 1998 student demonstrations, and 2007 saffron revolutions; the need of political environment inside Burma is extremely essential to pressure the regime persistently to do reform and also to educate the people about their rights and mobilize them.

Burma Democratic Concern (BDC) believes that the solution for the crisis of Burma is restoring democracy, human rights and rule of law. Burma Democratic Concern (BDC) is equipped with participants who had political background and in depth knowledge of Burma issues. They had experiences in the past and engaging in current activities. The work is largely inspired by their experiences and the appalling conditions they encountered inside Burma. Burma Democratic Concern (BDC) members are democracy activists, human rights activists and student activists consistently attempting to defend the human rights abuses in Burma.

The main objectives:

· to support efforts to create a political environment in Burma

· to increase awareness about political development in Burma

· to strengthen support for Burma democracy movement in international governments



Our Patrons

Venerable U Uttara, Dr. Salai Tun Than, Dr. Win Naing, U Tint Swe Thiha, Dr. Khin Wynn Nwe, U Tun Aung Kyaw, U Moe Thee Zun, Dr. Khin Sein, Daw Khin Aye Aye Mar, U Zar Ni(88 Generation Student-Exile), Du Wa M Zaw Aung, U Zaw Win Thint, U Soe Moe

Honorary Patron

Myo Yan Naung Thein

http://bdcburma.org/AboutUs.asp





Burma: Bogyoke Aung San’s Spirit is in our Hearts, Mind and Souls

February 13, 1915, is the birthday of our nation’s independence hero, father of Aung San Suu Kyi, Bogyoke Aung San’s birthday. He was assassinated by pro-colonialists only one year before we gained independence from British.

Bogyoke Aung San’s spirit is in our blood and we will never bow down to neither imperialist nor fascists nor military dictatorship for shaping our country future. Burma Democratic Concern (BDC) is very glad to learn that new generation of our (Burmese) brothers and sisters are keeping alight the torch of Bogyoke Aung San’s spirit.

“So then we must labour together in the common cause which concerns all and affects everybody. This is the best way in which we can show our highest sense of homage to our heroes; this is the only way in which we can accomplish the mission before us and find our salvation. We must strive and work all of us, until we become heroes all, so that we can ultimately dispense with any leader or leadership. For only then we can have freedom in a real and absolute sense. But I have gone far ahead. We have yet to win our national freedom before we can hope to help ourselves progressively to that absolute conception of freedom,” said Bogyoke Aung San.

http://bdcburma.org/Statements.asp?Id=75

Thursday, 11 February 2010

UN Human Rights Official to Visit Burma Next Week

A senior U.N. official will visit Burma next week for talks with its military leaders on their plans to hold a national election later this year.

The United Nations says its top envoy on human rights in Burma, Tomas Ojea Quintana, will arrive in the country Monday on a five-day visit.

In a statement released Thursday, Quintana says he hopes to meet leaders of Burma's political parties to discuss the planned election, which will be the country's first in 20 years. He says the election will make 2010 a "critical" year for the Burmese people.

Among those party leaders he hopes to meet is Burma's detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who in under house arrest in Rangoon. She has been under some sort of detention for 14 of the last 20 years.

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy swept Burma's last parliamentary elections in 1990, but the country's military rulers never recognized the results.

Burma's military has called the election as part of its roadmap for returning the country to democracy. But, pro-democracy groups and Western governments fear the election will lack credibility due to the military's detention of Aung San Suu Kyi and 2,000 other dissidents.

In another development, Burma's military drew criticism from the United States Wednesday for sentencing a Burmese-American human rights activist to three years in prison with hard labor.

A Burmese court convicted Kyaw Zaw Lwin of possessing a fake national identity card and undeclared foreign currency and violating immigration laws. He helped to organize a 1988 pro-democracy uprising in Burma, before fleeing a military crackdown on the opposition.

The U.S. State Department called the sentencing of Kyaw Zaw Lwin politically-motivated and unjustified and urged Burma to release him and allow him to return to the United States.

Burmese authorities arrested him last September after he arrived in Rangoon to visit his ailing mother. He was put on trial the following month.

Sunday, 7 February 2010

Élections au Myanmar ne sera pas libre et équitable
Contribution spéciale
Par le Dr Drew Thompson, du Centre Nixon

Des moines bouddhistes protestent dans Yanggon, Myanmar
Se promener dans les rues de Yangon ce Janvier, j'ai vu l'inutilité des sanctions américaines sur chaque coin. Commerce électronique se développe dans les rues torrides et des marchés, et de panneaux publicitaires japonais, sud-coréen, et les marques européennes sont partout. Pendant ce temps, les dirigeants de la junte ciblées par les sanctions qui empêchent Voyage de leur famille se sont contentés de la retraite dans les maisons splendides, tandis que leurs petits-enfants, refuser un visa pour visiter les États-Unis, tout simplement aller à l'université en Europe et en Australie. Les sanctions ont seulement servi à isoler les Etats-Unis. Cela est particulièrement regrettable à un moment où les États-Unis se doivent de vérifier avec soin, et même d'influencer, ce qui pourrait être l'année politique le plus important dans l'histoire récente du Myanmar.

La date n'est pas fixée, mais la poignée de généraux qui ont un monopole sur le pouvoir politique ont déclaré les élections auront lieu en 2010, et nul doute qu'ils se produiront avant la fin de l'année. La plupart des citoyens birmans sont déconcertés, et personne ne peut les blâmer de supposer que la junte militaire qui dirige le pays depuis la capitale isolée de Naypyidaw a truqué le processus.

Mais la vérité est que ces élections apporteront des changements: peut-être pas une fin soudaine de la junte militaire, mais sous-estimés importants et des changements tout de même. Et les États-Unis doivent être pleinement engagés.

Élections de cette année sera vivement contesté par l'opposition désireux d'obtenir un siège parlementaire. Bien que loin d'être un processus libre et équitable, ils pourraient représenter le début d'une longue route tortueuse et, éventuellement, vers un système relativement plus démocratique. Un nouveau gouvernement est certain de sortir au Myanmar, une fois le vote terminé, que l'on s'attend à inclure les hommes politiques élus au suffrage direct qui représente une
plus large section transversale de la société que jamais auparavant. Plutôt que de rejeter ces élections de la main et de les appeler une mascarade, les États-Unis doivent examiner attentivement les options et évaluer cette possibilité qui pourrait être historique pour façonner l'avenir du Myanmar.

Les élections raison sont attendu est bientôt l'état de santé du général détestait connu sous le nom "Number One", Than Shwe. Un leader du coup d'Etat 1988, Than Shwe est devenu le président de la Loi et de l'ordre Restoration Council (SLORC) en 1992 (en 1997, le SLORC a changé son nom à l'État pour la paix et le développement) et a maintenu une entreprise
emprise sur le pouvoir jusqu'à ce jour. Lui et sa famille ont amassé une fortune, et à près de 77 ans sa santé se détériorait et qu'il est prêt à prendre sa retraite. Comme de nombreux dictateurs avant lui, cependant, il se rend compte que la retraite dans la sécurité peut être plus compliquée que le maintien d'une main de fer sur le pouvoir. Comme dit le proverbe, "Monte d'un tigre est facile de descendre est plus difficile."

Afin d'assurer que lui et sa famille ne subissent pas de procès ou d'un peloton d'exécution une fois, il abandonne le pouvoir, Than Shwe a conçu un plan de retraite élaboré qui remplace sa junte avec un nouveau gouvernement, composé de militaires et de civils, qui ne sera pas puissant suffit de se venger de lui, sa famille ou ses copains. La seule issue qui préserve sa richesse et sa liberté est relativement faible, y compris
civile-gouvernement militaire que les soldes des auto-contrôles et la puissance d'une faction ou une succursale. L'établissement d'un gouvernement durable civilo-militaire exige des élections qui confèrent une légitimité suffisante pour le soutenir et renforcer l'autorité de civils vis-à-vis de l'armée plus puissante. Apprendre de l'expérience de nombreux autres dictateurs militaires, Than Shwe craintes d'un successeur autoritaire pourraient plier aux sentiments populistes et oblitérer lui.

Ce plan a été accéléré après les élections de 1990, dans laquelle le prix Nobel Aung San Suu Kyi et sa Ligue nationale pour la démocratie (NLD) a remporté une victoire écrasante, poussant l'armée à ne pas tenir compte des résultats des élections »et de la jeter en prison. Than Shwe a depuis récupéré le chemin du retour vers le haut, éliminer ses rivaux et successeurs semblables, tout complot visant à adopter une "feuille de route" pour la démocratie qui a été largement rejetée par tous sauf par ses plus proches partisans.

Au centre du plan de Than Shwe est la Constitution de 2008. A première vue, la constitution du Myanmar est largement fondée sur la Constitution des États-Unis, avec trois branches du gouvernement qui forment un système de freins et de contrepoids. Mais la Constitution est imparfaite, tout comme les élections parlementaires et de sélection du prochain chef de l'Etat sera.

L'armée est garanti 25 pour cent des sièges dans la législature, et le président sera choisi parmi trois candidats choisis par le gouvernement, avec les deux autres candidats de devenir vice-présidents.

Même si ça peut paraître sombre, l'optimiste serait de reconnaître que 75 pour cent des sièges parlementaires seront choisis par vote populaire, et il est fort probable que beaucoup de ces sièges seront remportés par des candidats de l'opposition. Le gouvernement travaille déjà difficile de recruter des candidats qui sont bien considérés dans leur collectivité et non pas antagoniste à l'armée - comme les enseignants et les agriculteurs avec succès - pour que le parlement comprend députés indépendants qui sont respectés par la population.

Avec les militaires garantie de 25 pour cent des sièges et le reste partagé entre les pro-gouvernementales, indépendantes, et les parlementaires d'opposition, il est peu probable que la majorité absolue va contrôler le législateur, ce qui nécessite la nécessité du compromis et de la coalition se former.

Cependant, il ya deux choses qui pourraient faire obstacle à la voie de ce grand projet - la prochaine génération de dirigeants militaires et «la dame». Il n'ya aucune garantie que la prochaine génération d'officiers seront disposés à partager le pouvoir avec des civils, en particulier élus. Ils pourraient ne pas respecter les limites sur le pouvoir qu'ils ont été énoncés sur le papier fragile.

Aung San Suu Kyi présente le problème potentiel autre pour les généraux. Doit-elle être libérés et autorisés à faire campagne librement pour ses candidats NLD, ils seraient facilement gagner une majorité de sièges, comme ils le faisaient aux élections de 1990 quand ils ont remporté 392 des 485 sièges, même avec Aung San Suu Kyi en résidence surveillée . Une écrasante victoire de la NLD en 2010 sera presque certainement inacceptable pour les généraux de retraite qui ne veulent pas se trouver à la merci de la longue persécuté et exilé NLD. Un autre coup d'État aurait vraisemblablement pour effet, mettant fin à tout espoir de gouvernement représentatif au Myanmar émergents pour les décennies à venir.

Pour éviter cela, les généraux cherchera probablement à empêcher Aung San Suu Kyi de faire campagne, en gardant ses sous résidence surveillée jusqu'à ce que les élections sont terminées. Bien que les dates de la loi électorale et du scrutin n'ont pas encore été annoncé, certains analystes se douter que la loi électorale sera publié au début du printemps et les élections peut-être lieu le Octobre numerologically augure 10 (10-10-10). Toutefois, Aung San Suu Kyi a indiqué qu'elle est pragmatique, exprimant au gouvernement qu'elle est prête au compromis et à discuter de tout, même si, jusqu'à présent,
elle n'a pas commis la LND de participer ou boycotter le processus. Il ya un air généralisé d'incertitude. Mais si un logement est conclu entre les généraux et Aung San Suu Kyi et les élections tenues, il représente potentiellement la première étape dans l'évolution du Myanmar d'une dictature militaire à une forme de gouvernement représentatif familière à beaucoup de ses voisins asiatiques du Myanmar.

Considérons un précédent historique. Corée du Sud présidentielles et des élections à l'Assemblée dans les années 1970 et particulièrement en 1987 et 1988, quoique à peine considérés comme libres et justes, a donné aux parties d'opposition et les candidats, y compris des prix Nobel et futur Président Kim Dae-jung (qui avait brigué la présidence à trois reprises avant d'être élu en 1997), une plate-forme légitime à partir duquel développer leur voix, d'attirer des partisans, découvrez le processus politique, et s'opposer au parti au pouvoir.

Peu aurait pu le prévoir à l'époque des premières élections en Corée du Sud, mais le pays dispose aujourd'hui d'un processus démocratique enracinée et mûre, avec des partis conservateurs et libéraux échanger le pouvoir pacifiquement.

Malgré le pont empilés, certains candidats politiques au Myanmar sont optimistes quant aux perspectives pour les élections de cette année. Un leader de l'opposition qui a passé des années en prison, dit que le gouvernement avait encouragé à présenter des candidats pour contester les élections. En admettant qu'il s'agissait d'un petit pas, il dit: «Une chose que j'aime dans la Constitution est que nous pouvons faire élire au Parlement, je peux parler librement au Parlement et non du côté de la route sur une tribune improvisée. Pourquoi ne pas en tant que peuple, nous saisissons cette occasion pour aider [Than Shwe] faire une sortie honorable et de la démocratie gagner dans le processus?

En plus de candidats enthousiastes politiques, société civile se développe et fournit une base ténu pour soutenir la démocratie. Les organisations de base de poivre de la campagne, et Yangon ONG basées à ressembler de plus en plus de leurs homologues à Bangkok et à Séoul en oeuvre des programmes sociaux et environnementaux soutenus par un financement international, en particulier au lendemain du cyclone Nargis. Les médias officiels est toujours un jambon-bras propagande poigne du gouvernement, mais de petites publications voient le jour et l'Internet est une source de plus en plus important de l'information équilibrée. La Voix du service birman de trois America's heures de diffusion quotidienne sur ondes courtes sera particulièrement important pendant la campagne électorale comme l'un des rares non gouvernementales contrôlées par des sources d'information disponibles au niveau national.

Bien sûr, le gouvernement a encore de nombreux outils à sa disposition pour lutter contre l'opposition, comme la loi électorale et de l'intimidation pure et simple. Par exemple, les fonctionnaires et leurs familles seront dit pour qui voter, tandis que les cadres seront probablement attentifs maintenir une présence très visible dans les stations de vote. La loi électorale sera également possible d'exclure des candidats en particulier - comme les anciens prisonniers politiques ou des membres de groupes ethniques qui demeurent dans l'opposition armée au gouvernement - en plus de donner très peu de temps pour les candidats de l'opposition d'obtenir un soutien, de publier des matériaux, et la campagne. En plus de boîte de bourrage des urnes, le gouvernement aurait également la planification de l'élaboration de sales tours, comme la création de nouveaux partis politiques qui sonnent comme les partis d'opposition dans le but de confondre les électeurs.

Néanmoins, les dirigeants de l'opposition sont optimistes que les élections de cette année, ils auront un pied dans la porte de politique, un peu de sièges au parlement, et une plate-forme à partir de laquelle d'acquérir une expérience précieuse et participer aux prochaines élections en 2015. Cette année, le président sera probablement commencer un second mandat, ouvrant la voie à une équipe vraiment expérimentée de politiciens à la campagne de leur cœur en 2020.

Dans le cadre de sa formule nouvel engagement, les États-Unis devraient envisager de soutenir un processus politique pacifique au Myanmar, qui fournit une occasion pour l'opposition de participer au gouvernement.

Poursuivre le soutien aux droits de l'homme est indispensable, tout comme la pression sans relâche sur le gouvernement birman à libérer les prisonniers politiques et d'atteindre une détente pacifique avec l'opposition et les groupes ethniques. Bien qu'il puisse sembler être un choix de plus de pragmatisme politique des droits de l'homme, s'engager dans les élections birmane est en fait une décision qui profite à la fois.

Dr. Drew Thompson en est le directeur des études chinoises et Starr Senior Fellow, Centre Nixon de Washington DC. Il peut être contacté au dthompson@nixoncenter.org